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CFA Drought Analysis#6464/v7
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CFA Drought Analysis[SERVICE-6464]

Tracker: Services Priority: NormalNormal Status: Deployed
Submitted by: wlloyd Jan 12 2016 11:03 Modified by: tcwible Feb 11 14:02 Type: Model
Path: m/cfa/drought Context: csip-cfa Version: 1.0
Endpoints: http://csip.engr.colostate.edu:8088/csip-cfa/m/cfa/drought/1.0
Maintainers: tcwible
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Description
The drought analysis method included in CFA fits a regression model to historic annual stream flow data and forecasts it to simulate a larger dataset in order to predict high recurrence interval droughts (Salas, et al. 2005). The following is a step by step explanation of the drought analysis method used and example outputs for each step. The drought analysis begins by calculating annual flow values from available average daily flow data. 'drought1_timeseries.jpg' and 'drought2_column.jpg' contain an annual time series of the flow data with the specified annual drought limit as a reference.

After calculating the annualized flow data, it is then converted to its stochastic component (the mean is subtracted from the data and then divided by the standard deviation). The stochastic data is then transformed into a normalized dataset using a Box-Cox transformation. Then an Auto-Regressive (AR) or Auto-Regressive-Moving-Average (ARMA) model is fitted to the dataset (Salas 1993). The purpose of fitting the regressive model to the stochastic data is to increase the size of the dataset while maintaining its statistical properties, mean and standard deviation. 'drought3_fitted.jpg' contains a plot of the original annual data verses the predicted model data to illustrate the correlation between the datasets. If the correlation is poor then further modifications need to be made to the regression model in order to improve the reliability of the drought analysis.

After fitting the regression model, a 100,000 year forecasting is performed using the fitted model to create a dataset sufficiently large to ‘observe’ high recurrence interval droughts. 'drought4_projected.jpg' contains a plot of the original data and the first portion of the 100,000 year projected dataset used to analyze the drought impacts. This projected dataset is large to allow sufficient 'droughts' to occur illustrating high recurrence interval droughts that cannot be calculated from minimal observed data. The first 100 years of this dataset are not used in the analysis and a dropped as a model warm-up period. This allows for the model to operate independent of initial conditions.

Next the drought analysis uses the projected dataset to calculate the average recurrence interval of the 1yr, 2yr, 3yr, etc. droughts. These droughts are then categorized by their amount of drought deficit (supplied annual flow - drought demand limit) and illustrated in Figure 8. The original data and its corresponding recurrence intervals are included in 'drought5_recurrence.jpg' as well to illustrate the fit of the predicted data to that of the observed data. If the fit is poor, a better correlation of the regression model will likely improve the fit of the drought recurrence intervals

References:

Salas, Jose D., Chongjin Fu, Antonino Cancelliere, Dony Dustin, Dennis Bode, Andy Pineda, and Esther Vincent. 2005. "Characterizing the Severity and Risk of Drought in the Poudre River, Colorado." Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 131(5): 383-393.

Salas, Jose D. 1993. "Chapter 19: Analysis and Modeling of Hydrologic Time Series." The McGraw Hill handbook of hydrology. D. R. Maidment, ed., McGraw-Hill New York

Notes about Data Sources:

- All Data sources are accessed through the csip-lib-water library

- USGS Data extracted from the National Water Information System (NWIS) by encoded url (i.e. station id, begin/end dates, parameter type): https://help.waterdata.usgs.gov/faq/automated-retrievals

- STORET Data extracted from the Water Quality Data Portal (by the National Water Quality Monitoring Council) Web Services: https://www.waterqualitydata.us/webservices_documentation/

- CDWR Data extracted from the Colorado Decision Support System (CDSS) REST Services: http://dnrweb.state.co.us/dwr/dwrapiservice/help#TechInfoHelp&#All&#gettingstarted&#jsonxml

{
  "metainfo": {},
  "parameter": [
    {
      "name": "database",
      "description": "the database that the flow station belongs to (CDWR | STORET | USGS)",
      "value": "USGS"
    },
    {
      "name": "org_id",
      "description": "The ID for the supervising organization for the station within the STORET database (only used if database = 'STORET')",
      "value": "n\/a"
    },
    {
      "name": "station_id",
      "description": "station ID or name abbreviation used to query the specified database",
      "value": "06752000"
    },
    {
      "name": "station_name",
      "description": "Station name",
      "value": "CACHE LA POUDRE RIV AT MO OF CN, NR FT COLLINS, CO"
    },
    {
      "name": "begin_date",
      "description": "Begin date of data analysis, blank or formatted yyyy-MM-dd",
      "value": ""
    },
    {
      "name": "end_date",
      "description": "End date of data analysis, blank or formatted yyyy-MM-dd",
      "value": ""
    },
    {
      "name": "lambda_string",
      "description": "Lambda value of BoxCox Transformation or 'optimize'",
      "value": "1"
    },
    {
      "name": "action",
      "description": "Drought model to perform (all | optimizeModel | optimizeParameters | useParameters)",
      "value": "all"
    },
    {
      "name": "phi_values",
      "description": "Either the order 'p' of the model or tab-delimited phi values",
      "value": "1"
    },
    {
      "name": "theta_values",
      "description": "Either the order 'q' of the model or tab-delimited theta values",
      "value": ""
    },
    {
      "name": "drought_limit",
      "description": "Drought Limit",
      "unit": "AcreFeet\/year",
      "value": -1
    },
    {
      "name": "merge_datasets",
      "description": "true if user data is provided and this dataset is to be merged with the public dataset, false if public or user data is to be analyzed alone (not merged)",
      "value": false
    },
    {
      "name": "merge_method",
      "description": "Method of merging the datasets, user data first, public data first, max, ave., min (user | public | max | average | min)",
      "value": "user"
    },
    {
      "name": "user_data",
      "description": "String containing user uploaded data with one line header, first column dates (yyyy-mm-dd format), second column values in a tab-delimited format. Only used if merge_datasets == 'true' or database == 'UserData'.",
      "value": ""
    }
  ]
}
{
  "metainfo": {
    "status": "Finished",
    "suid": "abe793c8-d980-11e5-988e-b911819b7680",
    "cloud_node": "172.1.6.246",
    "tstamp": "2016-02-22 09:23:56",
    "service_url": "http://csip.engr.colostate.edu:8082/csip-cfa/m/cfa/drought/1.0",
    "request_ip": "10.2.228.70",
    "cpu_time": 5023,
    "expiration_date": "2016-02-22 09:24:31"
  },
  "parameter": [
    {
      "name": "database",
      "description": "the database that the flow station belongs to (CDWR | STORET | USGS)",
      "value": "USGS"
    },
    {
      "name": "org_id",
      "description": "The ID for the supervising organization for the station within the STORET database (only used if database = 'STORET')",
      "value": "n/a"
    },
    {
      "name": "station_id",
      "description": "station ID or name abbreviation used to query the specified database",
      "value": "06752000"
    },
    {
      "name": "station_name",
      "description": "Station name",
      "value": "CACHE LA POUDRE RIV AT MO OF CN, NR FT COLLINS, CO"
    },
    {
      "name": "begin_date",
      "description": "Begin date of data analysis, blank or formatted yyyy-MM-dd",
      "value": ""
    },
    {
      "name": "end_date",
      "description": "End date of data analysis, blank or formatted yyyy-MM-dd",
      "value": ""
    },
    {
      "name": "lambda_string",
      "description": "Lambda value of BoxCox Transformation or 'optimize'",
      "value": "1"
    },
    {
      "name": "action",
      "description": "Drought model to perform (all | optimizeModel | optimizeParameters | useParameters)",
      "value": "all"
    },
    {
      "name": "phi_values",
      "description": "Either the order 'p' of the model or tab-delimited phi values",
      "value": "1"
    },
    {
      "name": "theta_values",
      "description": "Either the order 'q' of the model or tab-delimited theta values",
      "value": ""
    },
    {
      "name": "drought_limit",
      "description": "Drought Limit",
      "unit": "AcreFeet/year",
      "value": -1
    },
    {
      "name": "merge_datasets",
      "description": "true if user data is provided and this dataset is to be merged with the public dataset, false if public or user data is to be analyzed alone (not merged)",
      "value": false
    },
    {
      "name": "merge_method",
      "description": "Method of merging the datasets, user data first, public data first, max, ave., min (user | public | max | average | min)",
      "value": "user"
    },
    {
      "name": "user_data",
      "description": "String containing user uploaded data with one line header, first column dates (yyyy-mm-dd format), second column values in a tab-delimited format. Only used if merge_datasets == 'true' or database == 'UserData'.",
      "value": ""
    }
  ],
  "result": [
    {
      "name": "len",
      "value": "44468"
    },
    {
      "name": "start",
      "value": "1881-07-01"
    },
    {
      "name": "end",
      "value": "2007-09-30"
    },
    {
      "name": "data_source",
      "value": "Stream flow data retrieved from the U.S. Geological Survey, National Water Information System: Web Interface. http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis, accessed: 2016-02-22 09:24"
    },
    {
      "name": "drought_limit",
      "value": "260525.03738685563",
      "unit": "acre-ft"
    },
    {
      "name": "drought_summary",
      "value": "drought_summary.txt"
    },
    {
      "name": "graph1",
      "value": "drought1_timeseries.jpg"
    },
    {
      "name": "graph2",
      "value": "drought2_column.jpg"
    },
    {
      "name": "graph3",
      "value": "drought3_fitted.jpg"
    },
    {
      "name": "graph4",
      "value": "drought4_projected.jpg"
    },
    {
      "name": "graph5",
      "value": "drought5_recurrence.jpg"
    },
    {
      "name": "graph_data_files",
      "value": "drought1_timeseries.out|drought2_column.outt|drought3_fitted.out|drought4_projected.out|drought5_recurrence.out"
    },
    {
      "name": "drought_summary.txt",
      "value": "http://csip.engr.colostate.edu:8082/csip-cfa/q/abe793c8-d980-11e5-988e-b911819b7680/drought_summary.txt"
    },
    {
      "name": "drought1_timeseries.jpg",
      "value": "http://csip.engr.colostate.edu:8082/csip-cfa/q/abe793c8-d980-11e5-988e-b911819b7680/drought1_timeseries.jpg"
    },
    {
      "name": "drought2_column.jpg",
      "value": "http://csip.engr.colostate.edu:8082/csip-cfa/q/abe793c8-d980-11e5-988e-b911819b7680/drought2_column.jpg"
    },
    {
      "name": "drought3_fitted.jpg",
      "value": "http://csip.engr.colostate.edu:8082/csip-cfa/q/abe793c8-d980-11e5-988e-b911819b7680/drought3_fitted.jpg"
    },
    {
      "name": "drought4_projected.jpg",
      "value": "http://csip.engr.colostate.edu:8082/csip-cfa/q/abe793c8-d980-11e5-988e-b911819b7680/drought4_projected.jpg"
    },
    {
      "name": "drought5_recurrence.jpg",
      "value": "http://csip.engr.colostate.edu:8082/csip-cfa/q/abe793c8-d980-11e5-988e-b911819b7680/drought5_recurrence.jpg"
    },
    {
      "name": "drought1_timeseries.out",
      "value": "http://csip.engr.colostate.edu:8082/csip-cfa/q/abe793c8-d980-11e5-988e-b911819b7680/drought1_timeseries.out"
    },
    {
      "name": "drought2_column.outt",
      "value": "http://csip.engr.colostate.edu:8082/csip-cfa/q/abe793c8-d980-11e5-988e-b911819b7680/drought2_column.outt"
    },
    {
      "name": "drought3_fitted.out",
      "value": "http://csip.engr.colostate.edu:8082/csip-cfa/q/abe793c8-d980-11e5-988e-b911819b7680/drought3_fitted.out"
    },
    {
      "name": "drought4_projected.out",
      "value": "http://csip.engr.colostate.edu:8082/csip-cfa/q/abe793c8-d980-11e5-988e-b911819b7680/drought4_projected.out"
    },
    {
      "name": "drought5_recurrence.out",
      "value": "http://csip.engr.colostate.edu:8082/csip-cfa/q/abe793c8-d980-11e5-988e-b911819b7680/drought5_recurrence.out"
    }
  ]
}
 (none)
 drought1_timeseries.jpg; drought2_column.jpg; drought3_fitted.jpg; drought4_projected.jpg; drought5_recurrence.jpg; drought_summary.txt
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